462 sellers gave up. They had one thing in common.
A neighbor sat across from me a while back and said something I hear a lot: "We priced it a little high to leave room to negotiate." I nodded. I have heard that at a lot of kitchen tables. And I have watched it not work out a lot of times, too.
These numbers are as of September 25, 2026. I pulled every listing myself from the MLS covering Orange County, NY and the towns within it.
The one thing 462 sellers had in common
721 lived-in homes came off the market with no initial sale. Of those, 115 came back and sold later. 144 are listed again right now. But 462 never sold and are not for sale today. They are just gone.
That is 2.7 homes that gave up for every 10 that sold.
The one thing those 462 had in common: they started too high. Their typical first asking price was $530,000. The homes that sold? Their typical first asking price was $498,000. That is a $32,000 gap at the start, before a single showing.
Price is not a negotiating tool here. It is a filter.
Buyers in this market are not haggling up from a low offer. They are filtering out anything that feels off. When a home opens too high, many buyers never walk through the door.
Right now, 483 of the 1,084 homes for sale have already cut their price. That is 44.6% of everything listed. The typical cut is $39,000, which is more than that original $32,000 gap. Sellers who priced carefully at the start did not have to give that back later.
Look at that $650,000 and up range. Only 38.1% of those homes sold at or above asking. That is where overpricing costs the most, and where the most price cuts are happening.
The market itself is not broken
At today's pace, every home for sale would be gone in 4.2 months. That sits between the two lines that matter: under 4 months favors sellers, over 6 favors buyers. This market is balanced, leaning toward sellers who price honestly.
1,705 lived-in homes sold. Buyers are out there. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.03% as of September 24, 2026, up from 6.95% the week before (Freddie Mac). That is real. It shapes what buyers can afford. But it has not stopped the market. It has just made buyers more careful about what they will pay.
If you are selling
The homes that sold started at $498,000 on the typical end. The homes that gave up started at $530,000. That gap is not a coincidence. Before you pick a number, look at what actually closed near you, not what your neighbor hoped to get.
A price cut later costs more than a right price now. The typical cut in this market is $39,000. That is $39,000 a seller hands back after weeks of sitting, which brings fewer offers, not more.
If you are buying
The $400,000 to $500,000 range is competitive. 66.3% of those homes sold at or above asking. If that is your range, come in prepared. Waiting for a deal in that band has not been working.
Above $650,000, there is more room. Only 38.1% of those homes closed at or above asking, and nearly half of all active listings have already cut. Patience has a payoff there, but only if you know which homes are worth waiting on.
- 462 sellers gave up this year.
- The ones who sold started $32,000 lower.
- This market rewards honest pricing and punishes hope pricing.
- The supply is balanced, buyers are active, and the homes that are sitting are mostly the ones that opened too high.
Your next step
(845) 656-4498Text me your address and I will send back where your home sits against the $498,000 typical asking price of homes that actually sold near you, so you can see which side of that line you are on before you pick a number. Takes a day, costs nothing.
Text me